Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 26/08/2019

Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 26/08/2019

 Happy Morning 😃

I have a flexible view on #NIFTY today, and open auction is very crucial for entire day.

I am expecting price opening around 11900 level and most importantly price acceptance is crucial at this point.  Read the complete analysis for more info…

10715,10770,10880 and 10935 levels are crucial for the day.

#NIFTY ANALYSIS:

We witnessed an open drive formation in last session but bulls have taken complete control and able to close the price above 10760. this shows the decisiveness of buyers however, the overall trade facilitation is still not in the support of bulls. hence I have a flexible view today. Price acceptance above 11935 is very much essential to to expect any bullish movements. 

And open auction is extremely crucial for the day (Specially first 30 min auction). If price able to accept the gap up for at least 30 min then I will look for bullish opportunities, else if there is immediate rejection in the open the odds of ORR is quite high in such cases.

Value is widened and it indicates there will be a big swings in the markets, Hence flexibility and proper position sizing is very important.

#BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS:

There is not much clarity in #BANKNIFTY , However open auction is very crucial here as well.

27390 is the significant level for #BANKNIFTY today.

26920, 27250 and 27390 levels are crucial for the day.

TRADE PLAN :

#NIFTY: I don’t have any plans for open buy trades. In case there is an immediate rejection with clear conviction by bears i will look for shorting opportunities in the open. acceptance above 11935 is very much essential to to expect any bullish movements so for any bullish opportunities i will wait for price acceptance.

#BANKNIFTY: I don’t have open trades plan here, However if there is good reward-able trades after the formation of open range then i may  plan any trades in #BANKNIFTY.

Note: Volatility is shooting up significantly and this is when the big money is made. Position sizing and Risk management are the keys.

MARKET PROFILE VALUES:

NIFTY

VAH— 10860

POC— 10770

VAL— 10740

BANK NIFTY

VAH— 27165

POC— 26925

VAL— 26865

Flexibility and patience are the keys in today’s trading session.

(Above information is my view of looking the markets and
there is nothing called Right or wrong in these dynamic markets,
Respect the risk, manage the money and plan your trades then approach with discipline)

Happy trading 🙂

 

TELEGRAM FEED

Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 06/08/2019

Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 06/08/2019

Happy Morning 😃

I am mildly bearish on #NIFTY until it trades below 10845.

However open auction and auction at 10806 level is extremely crucial for the day.

I am expecting today’s open below 10845.
Price acceptance below 11806 can add more shorts in the system.

10806, 10845 and 10900 levels are crucial for the day.

#NIFTY ANALYSIS:

It was a clear balance day and the main thing to notice here this balanced auction took place below 10900, which is a sign of acceptance and we can also witness a gap down of around 80 points in #NIFTY that shows a clear follow-through of the balance. However, it’s opening near crucial support level that is 10806 and auction at this level is important for the day. If price accepts below this level another free fall can be expected.

Odds of Open or open test drive is also quite high…

#BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS:

Compared to #NIFTY, conviction level of bears is quite high in #BANKNIFTY  and I am also bearish on #BANKNIFTY until it trades below 27950.

27510 is the significant level for #BANKNIFTY today.

27510, 27675 and 27950 levels are crucial for the day.

TRADE PLAN :

#NIFTY: I don’t have any plan for the open trade, I will monitor the auction at 10806 and take decisions based on new info.

#BANKNIFTY: I do have an open trade plan here, I will plan my targets based on the open range development.

Note: Volatility is shooting up significantly and this is when the big money is made. Position sizing and Risk handling are the keys.
60-80 points gap down and continuation of that gap is common in this kind of markets.

MARKET PROFILE VALUES:

NIFTY

VAH— 10900

POC— 10870

VAL— 10840

BANK NIFTY

VAH— 27855

POC— 27765

VAL— 27585

Flexibility and patience are the keys in today’s trading session.

(Above information is my view of looking the markets and
there is nothing called Right or wrong in these dynamic markets,
Respect the risk, manage the money and plan your trades then approach with discipline)

Happy trading 🙂

 

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Pro Trade Setup for normal variation day’s…

Pro Trade Setup for normal variation day’s…

I assume you are at the intermediate level in the market profile concepts and you are well aware of the day structures and it’s characteristics. If you aren’t,  then you must study the basic concepts of the market profile to get the most advantage of this article.

When I started my journey as a profile trader,  I used to have a lot of confusion and conflict with my own thoughts on the market and technical concepts of market profile. Slowly I started gaining the conviction on the trade setups that I was comfortable with. However, when I started monitoring my trade results, the reward factor was not that great and the risk to reward was around 1:2 RRR. 

Shockingly I found a pattern in my trade style and around 75% of the time I was opting trades only on neutral days or non-trend days!

and when I reviewed the overall market moves in that period, I noticed that I had missed many normal variation days! Where the market extended the range in one side direction ( 80% of the IB Range ).

That’s the huge punch on my thought process. As traders, we are always demanded to think in terms of probabilities. Think about it, if I keep on opting the trades on low probable and low conviction day structures(Neutral or non-trend day), how can I increase my profitability factor? it’s certainly impossible, right. This can be increased only when I get good rewards on what I am risking. Image 1.1 shows the Probability of occurrence and conviction level of day structures.

It was very clear for me that to improve my rewards, I must gain a conviction on Normal Variation days.  There are a lot of benefits in mastering NV days since it has a high probability of occurrence and good conviction level. It really makes sense to work on conquering these days.

Here comes the challenging phase of my trading career, in one hand I need to find a way to trade NV Day and in another hand, my trading style which was inclined to Neutral and Non-trend days had to be changed.

I started Backtesting NV days for about 5 years and started observing it in the live market. I found patterns or information that were repeating in the past and in the current market. And that’s it, I found a way to trade NV days with good conviction level. However, there are few cases where I am still missing trades on these days but the repeated patterns which I have observed generally offering very good rewards for the risk I’m taking in each trade. In this article, I have made an attempt to present this information.

Well, let’s begin.

To succeed in this dynamic market one should have clarity and conviction on three important aspects of trading and they are:

1)  Direction.

2) Entry location and method.

3) Exit method.

Before discussing how to trade the NV days, let us understand the characteristics of it.  Below checkpoints shall converge to consider any trading day structure as Normal variation day and they are:

  1. Medium IB (Initial Balance) range.
  2. Range extension in one direction of the IB.
  3. The range extends about 80% of the IB (Most of the time).

By keeping the above points in mind, we will proceed to the next steps.
We will conduct this analysis after the formation of Initial balance. In our Indian market which is at 10:15 am. 

1st step: Identification of Medium IB range.

We should be able to distinguish IB range as either medium-range, small range or large range. Market Profile concept describes that whenever there is a medium IB range, either Normal variation day or Neutral day can be expected. And this also explains in general that there will be a 100% extension of IB on NV days. 
Now let’s take an average range of last 10-day’ s(Two weeks) for example the present Daily ATR of NIFTY is 126 (Refer image 1.2)

Now we know that the average range of NIFTY from last two weeks is around 126 points. To identify medium IB in this range, we need to do the following. Firstly we divide 126 by 2, that approximates to 63 points. Secondly, we divide 126 by 3 which approximates to 42 points.

Now any IB which falls within the range of 42-63 points can be considered as medium IB Range.

2nd step: Defining the direction.

Now that you have learned how to identify medium IB range. Let’s proceed to define the direction for the day.

Considering any trading day, at the end of the day, there will be an unfair high and unfair low. In general, the high or the low of the day occurs in the first 60min of the day (70% Probability) and in the first 30min (50% probability). As we demand the highest probability lets consider the 1st case where the market makes high or low of the day within the first 60min.

Image 1.3 shows an example of Up-trend formation for the day, where the second 30min candle is broken the first 30min candle high hence the low of the day is formed and the market will not return to the low that formed in first 60min(70% probability). This established direction will be negated if the market breaks the low that is formed in the first 60min. 

Similarly, Image 1.4 shows an example of Down-trend formation for the day, where the second 30min candle is broken the first 30min candle low hence the high of the day is formed and the market will not return to the high that formed in first 60min(70% probability). This established direction will be negated if the market breaks the high that is formed in the first 60min. 


There is another condition, if the second 30min candle is within the first 30min candle range then the view will be neutral for the day (Refer Image1.5 )and the probability of Normal variation day is less on these days.


3rd step: Entry location and exit methods.

Here comes the important question “Where I should enter the market and exit the market?”. This question decides the fate of trading and the answer to this question is the ultimate goal of any analysis.

Well, Before entering the market, one should have clarity on entry location and method. In my view, I have observed VWAP level acts as major support or resistance (Note: Only on NV days) for day trading. Click here to know about VWAP.

As per my understanding, VWAP(Volume weighted average price) is nothing but the dynamic volume POC and it is the price level where a maximum number of transactions occurred. Generally, this has a lot of influence in day trading and it’s used by many professional traders and institutions. 

 VWAP becomes the best entry location for normal variation day. 

Note: I use 15min timeframe in Intraday to time my entry and exits.

Once you know the IB is medium and direction is established in the first 60min,  next step is to wait for the price to retrace back to the VWAP level and take entry in the established direction based on (PIN BAR, ENGULFING or HARAMI Candlestick patterns). The entry candle low or high becomes the SL if its a pin bar candle, If its a harami or engulfing patterns then the big candle low or high becomes the SL. Simple! Let’s understand this in charts.

Once we take entry the next step is to exit the trade. On Nv days it becomes easy. We know that  NV days IB will extend by around 80% (most of the time). And this becomes our first target. Whenever I anticipate responsive activity I generally exit trades at 80% IB. But when I anticipate Initiative activity then I remove 50% positions at 80% IB and remaining I hold till EOD with trailing to lower lows or higher highs. If it takes the SL we exit by having a small loss(If you planned so).


SUMMARY

  1. IB is medium on NV days.
  2. IB extends 80% of IB range.
  3. The Direction of the day establishes in the first 60min(70% probability)
  4. VWAP is the best entry location for NV days.
  5. PIN BAR, ENGULFING or HARAMI Candlestick patterns for entry method

Excited,

Whatever the information I have shared here is my experience and observation. You don’t have to follow this blindly. Take last two-year intraday data and backtest it for few times. If you find a good EDGE and conviction then start trading in the real market. I hope this information will help you.

Please leave your valuable feedback and comments in the below comment section.

Happy Trading:)

Nataraj Malavade
Twitter : @mpwizardsNSM

ARTICLE BY 

Nataraj M S

Nataraj M S

Full time Trader & Founder - Market Profile Wizards

Nataraj is a full-time NIFTY and BANKNIFTY Trader and founded Market Profile Wizards to overcome the hurdles of retail traders which he faced during his journey as a trader. He has been in the stock market since 2013 as an active investor and trader. His main focus is in the area of Short term trading and Intraday trading.

He has an expertise in Market Profile, Order Flow, Price action, volume profile, Advanced options trading, technical analysis.

Watch first lesson for FREE

Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 31/07/2019

Market Profile Pre-Market Analysis: 31/07/2019

Happy Morning 😃

I am Bearish on #NIFTY until it trades below 11170.

I am expecting today’s open below 11100.
Price acceptance below 11100 is not a good sign for markets!

11080, 11170 and 10980 levels are crucial for the day.

 

#NIFTY ANALYSIS:

It was massive selloff with ORR drive, Price tried to sustain above 11245 and finally, initiative buying failed to move price above value. As a result, the massive fall was witnessed.
Overall auction is very clear and decisive about this fall and price also closed below major Resistance 11100. If price accepts below this level we can clearly say this is the beginning of the crash!. Open price behavior and initial range developments will reveal further clarity on the trade.

Overall 11100 is a make or break level for #NIFTY.

#BANKNIFTY ANALYSIS:

Compared to #NIFTY, #BANKNIFTY fall was more decisive. and I am also bearish on #BANKNIFTY until it trades below 20160.

28845 is the crucial level and also make or break level for #BANKNIFTY today.

28720, 28845 and 29160 levels are crucial for the day.

TRADE PLAN :

#NIFTY: I have a plan for an open trade only if price opens below 11100 and sustains with clear conviction. Odds of -ve Open Drive is quite high for the day!
Auction at the open is really important for the day.

#BANKNIFTY: I don’t have any plans to opt any trades in #BANKNIFTY, I will wait for the range to devolope and then  takke any decision.

MARKET PROFILE VALUES:

NIFTY

VAH— 11275

POC— 11225

VAL— 11175

BANK NIFTY

VAH— 29580

POC— 29340

VAL— 29160

Flexibility and execution speed is the keys to today’s trading session.

(Above information is my view of looking the markets and
there is nothing called Right or wrong in these dynamic markets,
Respect the risk, manage the money and plan your trades then approach with discipline)

Happy trading 🙂

How to get the market profile & Order Flow software at the best cost?

How to get the market profile & Order Flow software at the best cost?

Greetings for the day 🙂

I got many  queries regarding the market profile software source and how to get this and how to install and is there any ways to reduce the cost etc

Hence I have decided to write this article to answer these questions, The main objective of this article is to spread the awareness on market profile software and help the retail traders on reducing the cost of the software.

Nowadays’s Market Profile and Order flow software are becoming one of the most used tools by retail traders and generally, this leads in creating a demand for the product. The same is effectively used to increase the cost of these software’s.

The present moment the software cost varies from

Market Profile : 17000 – 21000 Rs 
Order Flow : 53000-60000 Rs.

Licence validity : LIFETIME

As a trader I can clearly say, this is the huge amount to invest in software in the initial stage of the trading and even after using this costly software also the success is not guaranteed in this markets.

Well, the important question at the moment is,

Is there any way by which we can save or get discounts on these software’s?

The answer is YES!

You can actually get the software’s at 50% flat discount, read the complete details to get the clarity.

The FIN-ALGO software devoloper is the answer for this.

How can you get the benefit here?

FIN-ALGO is a devoloper of Many Indicators for NINJATRADER, In that the market profile and Order flow are also included indicators.

When we purchase software by them we get a single license but this license can be used in two computers at the same time.

So, You can find a partner who is looking for buying the software and purchase a single license and you can use the same license for two computers simultaneously

The straight forward benefit of doing this is, you will be benefitted with a flat 50% discount on the original product.

The present software cost of FIN ALGO is

MARKET PROFILE (TPO chart with volome profile) : 289$ (Approx 20200 Rs)
ORDER FLOW (Market Balance) : 750$ (Approx 52500 Rs)

If you purchase the license by having an other partner it will cost you

MARKET PROFILE (TPO chart with volome profile) : 10100 Rs Approx
ORDER FLOW(Market Balance) : 26250 Rs Approx .

And its also a lifetime license.

If you want to know more about fin algo and their products, Find the details below.

FINALGO WEBSITE : http://fin-alg.com/

To get additional discounts on these prodicts vist our WEBSITE  : https://www.marketprofilewizards.com/indicators/

Hope this article helps you in reducing the investment costs of these software’s.

Please leave your feedback in below comment section…

Happy Trading 🙂

Click below to know more about the market profile and order flow software.

Nataraj M S

Nataraj M S

Founder - Market Profile Wizards

Nataraj is a full-time NIFTY and BANKNIFTY Trader and founded Market Profile Wizards to overcome the hurdles of retail traders which he faced during his journey as a trader. He has been in the stock market since 2013 as an active investor and trader. His main focus is in the area of Short term trading and Intraday trading.

He has an expertise in Market Profile, Order Flow, Price action, volume profile, Advanced options trading, technical analysis.